This is the text of an Authors Guild release posted on July 26 2010. For background see Will Random House Chicken Out Again?

We don’t know the details of the Odyssey-Amazon agreement, but we can make some informed guesses. The agreement is most likely under the agency model, with Amazon paying Odyssey 70% of the retail price of the books. Wylie and Odyssey are together taking a typical agent’s commission as compensation: 10 or 15% of the 70% received from Amazon. In round figures, this means that the author receives 60 to 63% of the retail price of the book.

For comparison, a typical contract with a traditional publisher pays e-book royalties of 25% of net proceeds. If the e-book is sold under the agency model, the author’s share is 25% of 70%, or 17.5% of the retail price of the book. After the agent’s commission, the author receives roughly 15 to 16% of the retail price of the book.

For a $9.99 book under the Odyssey-Amazon agreement, the author would receive royalties of $5.94 to $6.29 per book, net of all commissions. For a $9.99 e-book under a typical contract with a traditional publisher sold under the agency model, the author would receive royalties of $1.49 to $1.57, net of all commissions. The difference is about $4.50 per unit, a 300% increase in author income.

Pricing Page

1. Royalty Options. Subject to the limitations set forth in this Pricing Page, for each Digital Book, you may choose, in accordance with our then-current procedures, either the 35% Royalty Option or the 70% Royalty Option, each described below.

a. 35% Royalty Option.

i. The Royalty for the Digital Book will be equal to 35% of the applicable List Price for the Digital Book.

ii. For any Digital Book for which you select the 35% Royalty Option, at all times that the Digital Book is available for sale through the Program, you must adjust the List Price as required to ensure that the List Price, plus any applicable VAT, does not exceed the lowest of: (a) the lowest suggested retail price or equivalent price for any digital or physical edition of the Digital Book; (b) the lowest price at which you list or offer any digital or physical edition of the Digital Book on any website or other sales channel; and (c) any maximum List Price we provide from time to time in the Program Policies.

b. 70% Royalty Option.

i. The 70% Royalty Option is only applicable to sales to United States customers, so if you choose this option, the Royalty on sales to non-United States customers will be as provided under the 35% Royalty Option.

ii. The Royalty will be equal to 70% of the amount equal to the applicable List Price for the Digital Book less the Delivery Costs (as defined below) for the Digital Book. But if we sell the Digital Book at a price below the List Price to match the price at which a third party sells any digital or physical edition of the Digital Book or to match the price at which we sell any physical edition of the Digital Book, the Royalty will be equal to 70% of the amount equal to the price at which we sell the Digital Book less the Delivery Costs for the Digital Book. Our determinations regarding price-matching are final and non-reviewable. If you object to our price-matching determination with regard to one of your books, your sole and exclusive remedy is to switch your Royalty option for future sales of the Digital Book to the 35% Royalty Option as described below.

iii. The Delivery Costs for a Digital Book will be equal to $0.15 multiplied by our determination of the number of megabytes your Digital Book file contains, once uploaded by you and converted by us into our then-current Digital Book format. One megabyte equals 1024 kilobytes. One kilobyte equals 1024 bytes. We will round file sizes up to the nearest kilobyte. The minimum Delivery Cost for a Digital Book will be $0.01 regardless of file size.

iv. Example: If your book has a file size of 0.400 megabytes and a List Price of $8.99, the Delivery Cost will be $0.06 (0.400 MB x $0.15 = $0.06), and your Royalty will be $6.25 (($8.99 – $0.06) x 70% = $6.25).

v. For any Digital Book for which you select the 70% Royalty Option, at all times that the Digital Book is available for sale through the Program, you must adjust the List Price as required to ensure that the List Price does not exceed the lowest of: (a) the lowest suggested retail price or equivalent price for any digital edition of the Digital Book; (b) the lowest price at which you list or offer any digital edition of the Digital Book on any website or other sales channel; (c) 20% below the lowest suggested retail price or equivalent price for any physical edition of the Digital Book; (d) 20% below the lowest price at which you list or offer any physical edition of the Digital Book on any website or other sales channel; and (e) any maximum List Price we provide from time to time in the Program Policies.

vi. The 70% Royalty Option is not available for Digital Books that consist primarily of public domain content, and by selecting the 70% Royalty Option for a Digital Book, you confirm that it does not consist primarily of public domain content. If you select the 70% Royalty Option for a Digital Book that we determine consists primarily of public domain content, we will be entitled to change the Digital Book to the 35% Royalty Option retroactively and to pay you Royalties and adjust your previously reported or paid Royalties based on the 35% Royalty Option.

vii. If you select the 70% Royalty Option for a Digital Book, you must make it available to us for distribution in each territory for which you have appropriate distribution rights, and you must comply with any other restrictions or requirements we may provide from time to time for the 70% Royalty Option in the Program Policies.

viii. If at any time your Digital Book does not meet the requirements for the 70% Royalty Option, the Royalty for the Digital Book will be as provided in the 35% Royalty Option.

ix. Any new feature incorporated into the Program will apply to all Digital Books distributed under the 70% Option even if we make the feature optional for other Digital Books.

2. Changing your Royalty Option. You may change your choice of Royalty option for future sales of a Digital Book at any time through our then-current procedures. It may take up to 48 hours for your change to be effective.

3. List Price Requirements. To be accepted in the Program, your Digital Book’s List Price must meet the List Price requirements.

SEATTLE, Jun 30, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) –

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) today announced that the 70 percent royalty option that enables authors and publishers who use the Kindle Digital Text Platform (DTP) to earn a larger share of revenue from each Kindle book they sell is now available. For each book sold from the Kindle Store for Kindle, Kindle DX, or one of the Kindle apps for iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch, BlackBerry, PC, Mac and Android phones, authors and publishers who choose the new 70 percent royalty option will receive 70 percent of the list price, net of delivery costs.

Delivery costs are based on file size, and pricing is set at $0.15/MB. At today’s median DTP file size of 368KB, delivery costs would be less than $0.06 per unit sold. For example, on an $8.99 book an author would make $3.15 with the standard option and $6.25 with the new 70 percent option. This new option, first announced in January 2010, will be in addition to and will not replace the existing DTP standard royalty option.

In addition to the 70 percent royalty option, Amazon also announced improvements in DTP such as a more intuitive “Bookshelf” feature and a simplified two-step process for publishing. These features make it more convenient for authors and publishers to publish using DTP.

“We’re excited about the launch of the 70 percent royalty option and user experience enhancements in DTP because they enable authors and publishers to conveniently offer more content to Kindle customers and to make more money from the books they sell,” said Russ Grandinetti, Vice President of Kindle Content.

DTP authors and publishers are now able to select the royalty option that best meets their needs. Books from authors and publishers who choose the 70 percent royalty option will have access to all the same features and be subject to all the same requirements as books receiving the standard royalty rate. In addition, to qualify for the 70 percent royalty option, books must satisfy the following set of requirements:

* The author or publisher-supplied list price must be between $2.99 and $9.99.
* The list price must be at least 20 percent below the lowest list price for the physical book.
* The title is made available for sale in all geographies for which the author or publisher has rights.
* The title will be included in a broad set of features in the Kindle Store, such as text-to-speech. This list of features will grow over time as Amazon continues to add more functionality to Kindle and the Kindle Store.
* Under this royalty option, books must be offered at or below price parity with competition, including physical book prices.

The 70 percent royalty option is for in-copyright works and is unavailable for works published before 1923 (a.k.a. public domain books). The 70 percent royalty option is currently only available for books sold to United States customers.

DTP is a fast and easy self-publishing tool that lets anyone upload and format their books for sale in the Kindle Store (www.amazon.com/kindlestore). To learn more about the Kindle Digital Text Platform, visit http://dtp.amazon.com or e-mail dtp-support@amazon.com.

Kindle is in stock and available for immediate shipment today at http://www.amazon.com/kindle.

About Amazon.com

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), a Fortune 500 company based in Seattle, opened on the World Wide Web in July 1995 and today offers Earth’s Biggest Selection. Amazon.com, Inc. seeks to be Earth’s most customer-centric company, where customers can find and discover anything they might want to buy online, and endeavors to offer its customers the lowest possible prices. Amazon.com and other sellers offer millions of unique new, refurbished and used items in categories such as Books; Movies, Music & Games; Digital Downloads; Electronics & Computers; Home & Garden; Toys, Kids & Baby; Grocery; Apparel, Shoes & Jewelry; Health & Beauty; Sports & Outdoors; and Tools, Auto & Industrial. Amazon Web Services provides Amazon’s developer customers with access to in-the-cloud infrastructure services based on Amazon’s own back-end technology platform, which developers can use to enable virtually any type of business. Kindle and Kindle DX are the revolutionary portable readers that wirelessly download books, magazines, newspapers, blogs and personal documents to a crisp, high-resolution electronic ink display that looks and reads like real paper. Kindle and Kindle DX utilize the same 3G wireless technology as advanced cell phones, so users never need to hunt for a Wi-Fi hotspot. Kindle is the #1 bestselling product across the millions of items sold on Amazon.

Amazon and its affiliates operate websites, including www.amazon.com, www.amazon.co.uk, www.amazon.deb,www.amazon.co.jp, www.amazon.fr, www.amazon.ca, and www.amazon.cn. As used herein, “Amazon.com,” “we,” “our” and similar terms include Amazon.com, Inc., and its subsidiaries, unless the context indicates otherwise.

Forward-Looking Statements

This announcement contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Actual results may differ significantly from management’s expectations. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that include, among others, risks related to competition, management of growth, new products, services and technologies, potential fluctuations in operating results, international expansion, outcomes of legal proceedings and claims, fulfillment center optimization, seasonality, commercial agreements, acquisitions and strategic transactions, foreign exchange rates, system interruption, inventory, government regulation and taxation, payments and fraud. More information about factors that potentially could affect Amazon.com’s financial results is included in Amazon.com’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings.

SOURCE: Amazon.com, Inc.

Amazon.com, Inc.

In the Beginning: Science Faces God in the Book of Genesis – Asimov, Isaac
Mariposa – Bear, Greg
Beyond Heaven’s River – Bear, Greg
The Venging – Bear, Greg
Psychlone – Bear, Greg
Quantico – Bear, Greg
Women in Deep Time – Bear, Greg
Anvil of Stars – Bear, Greg
Blood Music – Bear, Greg
Dinosaur Summer – Bear, Greg
Eternity – Bear, Greg
Queen of Angels – Bear, Greg
Hardfought – Bear, Greg
The Jaguar Princess – Bell, Clare
People of the Sky – Bell, Clare
Happy Endings and More Happy Endings: Uplifting End of Life Stories (Two-In-One Volume) – Bell, Lorna
Ariel – Boyett, Steven R.
Great Siege, The – Bradford, Ernle
The Dream Compass – Bredenberg, Jeff
The Dream Vessel – Bredenberg, Jeff
Talking Back to Prozac – Breggin, M.D., Peter
Quipu – Broderick, Damien
Hyperthought – Buckner, M. M.
War Surf – Buckner, M. M.
The Coin-Giver – Buckner, M. M.
Hair Raiser – Cohen, Nancy
Murder by Manicure – Cohen, Nancy
Body Wave – Cohen, Nancy
Permed to Death – Cohen, Nancy
Highlights to Heaven – Cohen, Nancy
Died Blonde – Cohen, Nancy
Dead Roots – Cohen, Nancy
Killer Knots – Cohen, Nancy
Perish by Pedicure – Cohen, Nancy
The Coroner’s Lunch – Cotterill, Colin
Thirty-Three Teeth – Cotterill, Colin
How to Prosper In the Coming Apocalypse – Curtis, Richard
Tangled Vines – Dailey, Janet
Aspen Gold – Dailey, Janet
A Land Called Deseret – Dailey, Janet
A Lyon’s Share – Dailey, Janet
A Tradition of Pride – Dailey, Janet
After the Storm – Dailey, Janet
Bed of Grass – Dailey, Janet
Beware of the Stranger – Dailey, Janet
Big Sky Country – Dailey, Janet
Bluegrass King – Dailey, Janet
Boss Man From Ogallala – Dailey, Janet
Dakota Dreamin’ – Dailey, Janet
Dangerous Masquerade – Dailey, Janet
Darling Jenny – Dailey, Janet
Difficult Decision – Dailey, Janet
Enemy in Camp – Dailey, Janet
For Mike’s Sake – Dailey, Janet
Giant of Mesabi – Dailey, Janet
Green Mountain Man – Dailey, Janet
Heart of Stone – Dailey, Janet
Heiress – Dailey, Janet
Kona Winds – Dailey, Janet
Land of Enchantment – Dailey, Janet
Lord of the High Lonesome – Dailey, Janet
Low Country Liar – Dailey, Janet
Night of the Cotillion – Dailey, Janet
Northern Magic – Dailey, Janet
One of the Boys – Dailey, Janet
Reilly’s Woman – Dailey, Janet
Savage Land – Dailey, Janet
Sentimental Journey – Dailey, Janet
Show Me – Dailey, Janet
Six White Horses – Dailey, Janet
Sonora Sundown – Dailey, Janet
Southern Nights – Dailey, Janet
Strange Bedfellow – Dailey, Janet
Summer Mahogany – Dailey, Janet
That Boston Man – Dailey, Janet
That Carolina Summer – Dailey, Janet
The Bride of the Delta Queen – Dailey, Janet
The Homeplace – Dailey, Janet
The Indy Man – Dailey, Janet
The Mating Season – Dailey, Janet
The Thawing of Mara – Dailey, Janet
The Widow and the Wastrel – Dailey, Janet
Tidewater Lover – Dailey, Janet
To Tell the Truth – Dailey, Janet
Valley of the Vapours – Dailey, Janet
Wild and Wonderful – Dailey, Janet
With a Little Luck – Dailey, Janet
No Quarter Asked – Dailey, Janet
The Inquest – Dando-Collins, Stephen
Starrigger – DeChancie, John
Galactic Bounty – Dietz, William C.
Imperial Bounty – Dietz, William C.
Alien Bounty – Dietz, William C.
McCade’s Bounty – Dietz, William C.
Bodyguard – Dietz, William C.
Drifter – Dietz, William C.
Drifter’s Run – Dietz, William C.
Drifter’s War – Dietz, William C.
Snake Eye – Dietz, William C.
The Reluctant Swordsman – Duncan, Dave
The Coming of Wisdom – Duncan, Dave
The Destiny of the Sword – Duncan, Dave
Past Imperative – Duncan, Dave
Present Tense – Duncan, Dave
Future Indefinite – Duncan, Dave
Strings – Duncan, Dave
Hero! – Duncan, Dave
Budayeen Nights – Effinger , George
Gentleman Junkie – Ellison, Harlan
Memos from Purgatory – Ellison, Harlan
Paingod and Other Delusions – Ellison, Harlan
Shatterday – Ellison, Harlan
Spider Kiss – Ellison, Harlan
Web of the City – Ellison, Harlan
Ellison Wonderland – Ellison, Harlan
I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream – Ellison, Harlan
Approaching Oblivion – Ellison, Harlan
Children of the Streets – Ellison, Harlan
An Edge in my Voice – Ellison, Harlan
Dangerous Visions – Ellison, Harlan
City on the Edge of Forever, The – Ellison, Harlan
The Deadly Streets – Ellison, Harlan
Deathbird Stories – Ellison, Harlan
From the Land of Fear – Ellison, Harlan
No Doors, No Windows – Ellison, Harlan
Harlan Ellison’s Movie – Ellison, Harlan
Partners in Wonder – Ellison, Harlan
Sleepless Nights in the Procrustean Bed – Ellison, Harlan
Stalking the Nightmare – Ellison, Harlan
The Beast That Shouted Love at the Heart of the World – Ellison, Harlan
Strange Wine – Ellison, Harlan
Love Ain’t Nothing But Sex Misspelled – Ellison, Harlan
Over the Edge – Ellison, Harlan
Again, Dangerous Visions – Ellison, Harlan
The Harlan Ellison Hornbook – Ellison, Harlan
Vic and Blood – Ellison, Harlan
Troublemakers – Ellison, Harlan
Rewind – England, Terry
Lot Lizards – Garton, Ray
The Loveliest Dead – Garton, Ray
Sex and Violence in Hollywood – Garton, Ray
On Killing – Grossman, Lt. Col. Dave
Fractured Emerald: Ireland – Hahn, Emily
Floating Worlds – Holland, Cecelia
Highland Bride – Howell, Hannah
Highland Destiny – Howell, Hannah
Highland Champion – Howell, Hannah
Highland Angel – Howell, Hannah
Highland Groom – Howell, Hannah
Highland Hearts – Howell, Hannah
Highland Knight – Howell, Hannah
Highland Savage – Howell, Hannah
Highland Wedding – Howell, Hannah
Highland Vow – Howell, Hannah
Highland Promise – Howell, Hannah
Highland Warrior – Howell, Hannah
Highland Honor – Howell, Hannah
Highland Conqueror – Howell, Hannah
Highland Wolf – Howell, Hannah
EMT: Beyond the Lights and Sirens – Ivey, Pat
Chase the Lightning – Jones, Linda Winstead
Let Me Come In – Jones, Linda Winstead
No Angel’s Grace – Jones, Linda Winstead
The Incredible Voyage – Jones, Tristan
Seagulls in My Soup – Jones, Tristan
Outward Leg – Jones, Tristan
Somewheres East of Suez – Jones, Tristan
The Improbable Voyage – Jones, Tristan
Yarns – Jones, Tristan
AKA – Jones, Tristan
Science Says – Kaplan, Rob
Season of Sacrifice – Klasky, Mindy
Creative Divorce – Krantzler, Mel
Lebenthal on Munis – Lebenthal, Jim
Swords Against Death – Leiber, Fritz
Swords Against Wizardry – Leiber, Fritz
Swords and Ice Magic – Leiber, Fritz
Swords in the Mist – Leiber, Fritz
The Knight and Knave of Swords – Leiber, Fritz
The Swords of Lankhmar – Leiber, Fritz
Swords and Deviltry – Leiber, Fritz
Big Time, The – Leiber, Fritz
Our Lady of Darkness – Leiber, Fritz
Profane Men – Miller, Rex
Assassin’s Play-Off – Murphy, Warren
Created, The Destroyer – Murphy, Warren
Sipping from the Nile – Naggar, Jean
Assassin of Gor – Norman, John
Hunters of Gor – Norman, John
Marauders of Gor – Norman, John
Nomads of Gor – Norman, John
Outlaw of Gor – Norman, John
Priest-Kings of Gor – Norman, John
Raiders of Gor – Norman, John
Tarnsman of Gor – Norman, John
Tribesmen of Gor – Norman, John
Slave Girl of Gor – Norman, John
Beasts of Gor – Norman, John
Rogue of Gor – Norman, John
Guardsman of Gor – Norman, John
Savages of Gor – Norman, John
Blood Brothers of Gor – Norman, John
Kajira of Gor – Norman, John
Players of Gor – Norman, John
Mercenaries of Gor – Norman, John
Dancer of Gor – Norman, John
Renegades of Gor – Norman, John
Vagabonds of Gor – Norman, John
Magicians of Gor – Norman, John
Witness of Gor – Norman, John
Prize of Gor – Norman, John
Imaginative Sex – Norman, John
Norman Invasions – Norman, John
Kur of Gor – Norman, John
The Godmother – Scarborough, Elizabeth
Scarborough Fair and Other Stories – Scarborough, Elizabeth
Song of Sorcery – Scarborough, Elizabeth
2,001 Things To Do Before You Die – Sherwood, Dane
The Parasite War – Sullivan, Timothy R.
The Martian Viking – Sullivan, Timothy R.
The Devil’s Sperm is Cold – Vassi, Marco
Slave Lover – Vassi, Marco
The Stoned Apocalypse – Vassi, Marco
The Saline Solution – Vassi, Marco
The Gentle Degenerates – Vassi, Marco
Contours of Darkness – Vassi, Marco
Tackling The Team – Vassi, Marco
In Touch – Vassi, Marco
The Sensual Mirror – Vassi, Marco
The Sky Warden & the Sun – Williams, Sean
The Stone Mage & the Sea – Williams, Sean
The Storm Weaver & the Sand – Williams, Sean
Showstopper! – Zachary, G. Pascal

Efficiency Strikes the Distribution Business

While the mass market book book business appeared to be healthy, in the early 1990s the infrastructure of paperback book distribution was undergoing significant changes. The dramatic rise and expansion of bookstore chains like Barnes & Noble siphoned business away from wholesalers’ franchises, both in cities and suburban malls. Computerized sales information enabled publishers, wholesalers and retailers to better track the performance of categories and identify winners and losers among specific books and authors. And the stunning advent of amazon.com leveraged the awesome power of the Internet to link supply and demand.

Assessing these patterns, paperback distributors began asking themselves why they needed to employ human labor when they could more efficiently and economically service bookstores and other outlets by shipping books directly to the retailers. Yes, it would mean that the human element — the guy in the station wagon who knew which towns loved historical romances and which preferred contemporary ones, which adored westerns and which were big on science fiction – would be removed from the equation. But — well, that was progress!

The big agencies pulled the plug in that summer of 1996 when whole fleets of drivers were discharged, and in the following years the wholesale distribution workforce was reduced to a fraction of what it had been in its heyday.

The Bottom Drops Out

Most publishing executives were slow to recognize the implications of the nosedive in the wholesale paperback distribution business, dismissing it as one of those occasional and inevitable shifts to which the industry had always adapted. What was the big deal? Fewer romances and other genre novels would be published, wasn’t that all there was to it?

In fact, the consequences were nothing short of calamitous. The impact was felt in every sector of the publishing business, from what got written to what got published to what got read. It wasn’t long before customers in west Texas or Nebraska or South Carolina discovered that many books by their favorite authors were no longer being stocked in their local stores. When customers or store owners complained, they were told to take it up with the distributor – in Vancouver or some other far-flung location reachable only by an 800 phone number.

The Rise of the Airport Model

A key result of the shift in distribution patterns was the streamlining of the way retailers ordered books from publishers. Why pick and choose among thousands of titles that might sell only a handful of copies? Wasn’t it better to follow the formula that worked so well at airports, ordering only the top fifteen or twenty bestselling books by branded authors like Nora Roberts, Robert Ludlum, John Grisham and Stephen King?

As paperback publishers awoke to the new buying patterns, they were forced to choose between star authors and those whose sales performance fell below a minimum level. At first the triaging was restricted to marginal genres like westerns, but as the last decade of the twentieth century progressed the definition of “marginal” broadened to embrace every category of book that fell below an ever-stricter definition of commerciality, a process akin to the lowering of the bar in a limbo dance. Limbo indeed: authors who had made a living for years from sales of ten or fifteen thousand copies of their paperbacks were now being dropped by their publishers as the minimum sales quota increased to twenty or thirty thousand copies or more.

Like the men and women who distributed their books, a lot of authors were thrown out of work, and the grim truth finally dawned on publishing executives. It wasn’t just genre titles that were affected by the seismic shift in book distribution; paperbacks of every kind were being hit by the pullback.

“What’s the Author’s Platform?”

As the publishing industry entered the twenty-first century, book industry executives began requiring editors to produce elaborate profit and loss projections and other corporate-style analyses of the potential viability of books and authors. What was the sales performance of previous books? Did they “sell through” satisfactorily or did returns cross the threshold of unprofitability according to the latest formulas devised by bookstore chain number-crunchers? The mantra of “The Bottom Line” was invoked ad nauseam at every editorial committee, and editors were constantly reminded, “We can only afford to publish hits. If you can’t project a big profit on a book, turn it down.”

Editorial financial projections were aided by an Orwellian innovation called BookScan, instituted early in 2001 by Nielsen Broadcast Data Systems, the world’s leading provider of airplay tracking information for the entertainment industry. BookScan offered subscribing publishers weekly analyses of sales by most major book retailers. Within moments, editors could access vital sales statistics on previously published books and authors, elevating performance parameters over traditional but less quantifiable values like compelling storytelling or stirring prose.

And what about the author? Was he or she attractive and mediagenic? Did he or she have a “platform” – an organizational base such as a hit television series or chain of fitness centers capable of promoting the sale of books? Was the author willing to buy large quantities of books for giveaway or resale by his or her franchise?

More and more, the importance of traditional literary criteria has taken a back seat to “The Numbers” and “The Platform.” Promising but modestly successful novelists have discovered they cannot get their second or third books published, and aspiring newcomers find that they cannot sell their books at all. As for nonfiction, no matter how compelling a memoir or business guide or social commentary might be, publishers are disposed to reject it because the author was not “branded.”

Faced with these grim options, authors have resorted to increasingly frenzied measures to get published. Established novelists are writing under pennames to disguise the poor performance of their earlier books, or strive to produce blockbuster “breakout” novels long on sex, violence, and plot but short on craft and characterization. Without supportive publishers to carry them while they developed their talents over four or five books, new novelists resort to gimmicky concepts with “log lines” that can be pitched like movie scripts. Nonfiction authors plump up their credentials or hire public relations specialists to burnish their images and enhance their media exposure. Others subsidize the purchase of large quantities of their own books to drive up their “numbers.” Literary agents are besieged by writers frantically seeking the advantage of representation by successful dealmakers. Self-publication has soared now that electronic and print technology and Internet promotion have brought the costs of vanity books down to proletarian levels.

As much as authors would dearly love to bring back the robust mass-market paperback era, it’s no likelier than a return to steam locomotives. More and more, the mass-market paperback is becoming a manifestation of blockbuster publishing, where economies of scale enable publishers to make a profit on immense shipments despite high returns. Because retail sales have shifted from racks to bookstores and the Internet, new and midlist works are increasingly being released in trade paperback.

The shift to trade paperbacks may help save midlist books. A major advantage of the trade paperback format is that it is the preferred size for print on demand reprints. “POD” takes all the guesswork out of bookselling, and the publishing industry can no longer afford to guess who will buy its products. Dismaying though it may be for old publishing hands to contemplate, the future of book distribution belongs to print on demand.

The end of the old mass-market paperback distribution system coincided with the birth of a new method of delivering books to readers. Though e-book technology has encountered innumerable obstacles, its potential to reach a vast readership is no longer seriously disputed. What sort of literature this new medium produces, and how it will make money for authors and publishers, are fascinating sources for speculation. And speculate we shall continue to do as the 21st century unfolds with its technological wonders and fascinating business model.

For many publishing people, the world as they had known it ended in the summer of 1996. On a warm brilliant day I sat down at a table in a Spanish restaurant for what I thought would be a typical lunch with the publisher of a mass-market paperback company. I found him slumped head in hands over a seriously stiff drink. “What’s the matter?”

He looked up, miserable. “You haven’t heard? The wholesale independent distribution business is imploding. Hundreds and hundreds of drivers have been let go.”

I groaned, beckoned to the waiter and pointed to my friend’s glass. “I’ll have the same.”
The collapse of the distribution system that fueled the mass-market paperback revolution was a trauma from which the book industry has not recovered to this day. To appreciate its impact requires a brief description of the way books were distributed after the post-World War II paperback revolution that swept the U.S. publishing industry.

By long tradition, trade or general interest hardcover books have been offered to bookstore buyers by publishers’ sales representatives. The store buyers select which titles they order and the number of copies they will stock in their stores. Though released year-round, hardcovers are offered on a seasonal basis in publishers’ catalogues, which are issued several times annually. Whatever the reality may be, the theory is that they will have a decent shelf life and, if popular, remain on display for months or longer. This business model has not changed fundamentally from the last century to the present time.

Mass-market paperbacks (as opposed to the larger trade paperback format) are a very different matter. Introduced in 1939, “pocket books” took hold in the ‘50s and ‘60s, but publishers soon realized that the hardcover distribution approach didn’t work. They needed a different sales model and turned to the one used for magazines.

Every month, magazines were shipped to depots – “agencies” – around the country. Drivers picked up the magazines at the agencies and visited stores on pre-assigned routes in towns and cities. Most of the stores were not bookshops but rather supermarkets, candy stores, newspaper stands, and bus, train or airport terminals. Each month, these salaried employees collected the previous month’s unsold publications and replaced them on the store’s racks and shelves with new stock.

To paperback book publishers, this existing distribution network was the perfect vehicle for delivering their product to a far-flung readership. Thus it came to pass that paperbacks began hitching rides with magazines. And that too is how they came to be released on a monthly schedule. After 1956, when the leading magazine wholesaler went out of business, a number of entrepreneurs set up shop as independent wholesale distributors (“ID’s” or “rack jobbers”), handling mostly books.

Because they were a monthly phenomenon, paperbacks did not enjoy a long shelf life; the exigencies of returning paperbacks, when the distributor cleared the racks to make room for the next month’s releases, made for an ephemeral existence. What is more, the unsold copies were usually not redistributed or remaindered. Because paperback publishers had to pay freight for returned copies, many of which were dirty or damaged, the stores found it more efficient simply to strip the covers off the unsold books, send the insides to be pulped, and return only the covers to the publishers for credit when settling accounts.

Since paperbacks were returnable, distributors delayed paying publishers until unsold stock was returned. To account to authors for the gap between copies sold and royalties released, the paperback publishers took a page from the creative accounting systems devised by the hardcover industry, holding large amounts of royalties for long periods until returns were finalized. Royalty reports to authors were deliberately fashioned to omit information about the number of copies printed, shipped, and returned, or about the amounts of royalty reserved pending finalization of returns. This suppressing of vital sales data gave publishers carte blanche to retain royalties that might have been remitted to authors. Some publishers got too creative and held royalties forever. Until the 1990s, when pressure from agents and from writers’ organizations forced publishers to reveal significant details, mass-market houses reported only net sales with no information as to how they arrived at those net figures. As I wrote at the time, it was like reporting batting averages to baseball fans without revealing how many at-bats or hits the players had had.

The Paperback Industry Blossoms

Unlike retailers of hardcover books, paperback booksellers seldom had much say over which titles were stocked on their racks. They passively received the current month’s selection and passively watched the unsold stock loaded into the distributor’s vehicle a month later. The authors of those books watched the process too, but some of them figured out ways to influence the wholesalers to promote their books. A number of leading authors, on their own initiative or sponsored by their publishers, began visiting the wholesale agencies and pitching their books at executives and ingratiating themselves with the jobbers. Some of the more energetic writers went so far as to drop in on drivers as they loaded their vehicles, bringing coffee and donuts and promotional material to inspire them. This technique was particularly successful with romance fiction, which sold most abundantly in the supermarkets that women visited two or three times every week. It did not hurt if the authors were attractive. Many a lovestruck driver stocked extra copies of a title after a pretty novelist shared a pre-dawn breakfast with him on the tailgate of his station wagon.

Although a growing number of traditional bookstores stocked mass-market paperbacks, it was the wholesale distribution network that fueled the huge growth of the book business in the last quarter of the twentieth century, spawning a thriving industry and a generation of bestselling authors. Even when those authors graduated to hardbacks, paperback reprints of their books drove sales overall. In the late 1980s and early ‘90s, mass-market paperback revenue made the difference between feast and famine for hardcover publishers. Income from romance fiction alone contributed 25% of the cash flowing into the trade book industry.

Smart publishing executives recognized how heavily they depended on mass-market income for their profits. But that message did not always filter down to their editors. Many of them, possessing only a hazy idea of where the money for their acquisitions came from, spent profligately and ended up taking a bath on books and authors that flopped miserably. Or they simply acquired whatever they pleased without giving much thought to the bottom line, failing to realize that they were indulging in a luxury largely subsidized by paperback book revenue. Many lived in denial that their beloved first novels, short story collections, poetry anthologies and other elevated forms of literary endeavor were financed by romances, westerns, thrillers, horror novels and space operas.

In the concluding installment, you’ll read how efficiency came to the paperback distribution business. It was not an entirely welcome guest.

Are literary agents friendly with each other? Are they mutually suspicious or hostile? Do they steal authors from each other at every opportunity, or do they cooperate with one another? Do they have a code of behavior? Are they too competitive to act collectively?

To the extent that the book publishing business is a pie to be sliced into just so many pieces, and the number of profitable authors is a finite one, I suppose it can be argued that agents are rivals. Yet I don’t think most agents feel that way. Unlike some other businesses we can think of, where the survival of one firm is achieved only at the expense of another, there appears to be enough business in the publishing field to enable all literary agents who stay in the game long enough and run their businesses prudently to earn a living and to be gracious toward each other while doing so. Though we have seen bad times in our industry, they have never been so bad that no publisher was buying books. Nor has the pool of potential clients ever shrunk to the degree that a resourceful agent could not find authors to make money with. In short, I don’t believe agents lose too much sleep worrying that the supply of or the demand for their products and services is going to dry up.

What agents do worry about is maximizing the earning power of their clients, helping their authors realize the full measure of their talents, and exploiting every bit of financial potential in their work: to put it plainly, making them rich and famous. Obviously, the agent whose clients become rich and famous will become rich and famous too. And, just as obviously, a dissatisfied author will eventually seek new representation.

And it is here that agents sometimes start throwing elbows.

Antagonism between agents flares up over the interpretation of just how loudly, sweetly, and aggressively an agent sings his firm’s praises to an author represented by another agent. You might think of it as the Smoking Gun theory of client-stealing: if the author walks in the door of another agency in a state of uncertainty but walks out clutching a signed agreement with his new agent, it can be inferred that something considerably more than a soft-sell occurred behind that door. At least, most of the time such an inference is justified. But not always. Many an author not comfortable with his agent has visited another agency and, with little persuasion, realized from a brief chat and a look around and a sniff of the atmosphere that he has actually been quite miserable with his old agent, but could not admit it until that moment.

However that may be so, the author’s old agent is going to strongly suspect that the other agent gave a snow job to his former client. Because I treasure the friendships of (most of) my colleagues, I call them when I become the beneficiary of a former client of theirs to reassure them that I did not actively solicit that client, and to pave the way for cooperation on old business concerning that author. And I have always appreciated it when my colleagues did the same for me. In some cases, when the parting is friendly and by mutual consent, agents will refer authors to other agents.

Most agents have had the experience of having their colleagues refer clients to them. In point of fact, agents work with each other to a much greater degree than they work against each other. I know of a few suspicious, curmudgeonly types who jealously guard their flocks as if their colleagues were wolves poised to pounce on helpless clients and carry them off to their lairs. On the whole, though, agents enjoy each other’s company, help each other, are anxious to remain on one another’s good side, and to a degree act cooperatively on matters that affect the author community. The Association of Authors’ Representatives (AAR), an amalgamation of two earlier literary agents’ guilds, was formed in 1991 to better serve that community. I particularly commend to your attention the organization’s Canon of Ethics.

Agents call each other frequently seeking advice on all manner of problems: Who do you know at Random House? How do you phrase your option clause? Who’s buying westerns? How did you conduct that auction? How did you get that terrific price? What should I do about this problem client?

On occasion, agents cooperate on deals. For instance, if an author leaving Agent A wishes Agent B to handle subsidiary rights to his old books—a situation fraught with the potential for mean-spirited behavior – the two agents might work things out so that they split a commission. Agent A will be satisfied because he doesn’t have to do all that much work to earn his share of the commission, and Agent B will be satisfied because he didn’t have to sell the books originally.

In other cases, such as collaborations, there may be two agents for two authors and the agents work out the division of labor and commissions. I may have a client with a fantastic story to tell who can’t write, but I don’t represent quite the right author to team up with him. And my buddy Agent X may have just the right author. After exploring the questions of our clients’ compatibility and the division of work and money, Agent X and I discuss just how we’re going to cooperate. Am I going to be the principal agent in making a deal with the publisher? If so, am I to take my commission off the top – off the total advance, that is – or do I take my commission only on that portion of the advance allocated to my client? Who is going to handle the subsidiary rights, Agent X or my agency? You can see that unless there is a solid friendship and abundant good will between agents, there is going to be friction, and in potentially fatal doses. Many a lucrative deal has gone down the tubes because two agents couldn’t reach agreement on such matters.

An editor once told me about a meeting in her office of two agent heavyweights, one whose client possessed the essential source material for a book, the other representing a star author whose byline and talent guaranteed a bestseller. The discussions went swimmingly until the question of commissions was raised. “Since I brought this project to the publisher and made the deal,” said the first agent, “I expect to get my commission off the top. You can take your commission out of your client’s share, net after I have taken my commission.”

“Uh-uh,” said the second agent. “My client is critical to the success of this book. I want a commission off the top too.”

The first agent glared at him for a moment, then rose and went to the phone on the editor’s desk.

“Who are you calling?” the editor asked.

“My driver,” said the agent. And that was the end of that.

- Richard Curtis

This article was originally written for Locus, The Newspaper of the Science Fiction Field. It’s reprinted in Mastering the Business of Writing. Copyright © 1990 by Richard Curtis. All Rights Reserved.

Chapter 1

The Sultan of the Ottomans

Soleyman’s titles resounded through the high Council chamber like a roll of drums:

Sultan of the Ottomans, Allah’s deputy on Earth, Lord of the Lords of this World, Possessor of Men’s Necks, King of Believers and Unbelievers, King of Kings, Emperor of the East and West, Emperor of the Chakans of Great Authority, Prince and Lord of the most happy Constellation, Majestic Caesar, Seal of Victory, Refuge of all the People in the whole World, the Shadow of the Almighty dispensing Quiet in the Earth.

His ministers, admirals, and generals prostrated themselves and withdrew. It was the year 1564, and Soleyman the First, Sultan of Turkey, was seventy years old. He had just taken the decision to attack the island of Malta in the spring of the following year.

His had been a life of unparalleled distinction from the moment when he had succeeded his father, Selim, at the age of twenty-six. Known in his own country as the Lawgiver, and throughout Europe as Soleyman the Magnificent, he had truly earned these appellations. He had reformed and improved the government and administration of Turkey, and had made her the greatest military state in the world. He was unequalled as a statesman, and was a poet in his own right.

If the Turkish people for these reasons called him ‘The Lawgiver’, the people of Europe for their part had good reasons for conceding to him the respectful title of ‘The Magnificent’. His conquests alone justified it, and Europeans have always lavished more respect upon conquerors than upon lawgivers. In the course of his Sultanate, Soleyman had added to his dominions, Aden, Algiers, Baghdad, Belgrade, Budapest, Nakshivan, Rhodes, Rivan, Tabriz, and Temesvar. Under him the Ottoman Empire had attained the peak of its glory. His galleys swept the seas from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, and his kingdom stretched from Austria to the Persian Gulf, and the shores of the Arabian Sea. Only at the walls of Vienna in 1529 had his armies faltered.

At the age of seventy, with so many resounding triumphs behind him, it might have been expected that the Sultan would wish to take his ease and watch the decline of day over the Golden Horn. But to Soleyman in his old age there remained only the desire for power, the ambition to extend his conquests. Even if he had not been ambitious himself, those who surrounded him would never have allowed him to rest.

‘So long as Malta remains in the hands of the Knights,’ wrote one of his advisers, ’so long will every relief from Constantinople to Tripoli run the danger of being taken or destroyed…’ ‘This cursed rock,’ wrote another, ‘is like a barrier interposed between us and your possessions. If you will not decide to take it quickly, it will in a short time interrupt all communications between Africa and Asia and the islands of the Archipelago.’

It was forty-two years since Soleyman, in the prime of his life and at the head of a vast fleet and army, had driven the Knights of St John from their island fortress of Rhodes. He had felt for them, then, an unwilling but respectful admiration. Had he not said in the presence of his advisers, ‘It is not without some pain that I oblige this Christian at his age to leave his home’? It was the sight of the seventy-year-old Grand Master, Villiers de l’Isle Adam, preparing to embark with his Knights from the captured island that had prompted this reflection. Now, at the same age himself, the Sultan was less moved by chivalry, and more by a desire for vengeance.

The sandstone rock of Malta had proved an even greater irritant than Rhodes. Rhodes had been so close to the shores of Turkey that, in the last years of their residence there, the Knights’ sallies had been almost neutralized. The movement of the Order’s galleys had been quickly made known to the captains of the Sultan’s warships and merchantmen. Yet, even so, they had still managed to harry the trade of the Levant, and interrupt the shipping between Alexandria and Constantinople. Malta, however, was worse, because it was so far distant from Constantinople that it was less easy to spy upon the Order’s movements. Furthermore, the island’s position in the very heart of the Mediterranean gave it the command of the east–west trade routes. Everything passing through the channel between Sicily, Malta, and North Africa was at the mercy of the Maltese galleys. They let few opportunities slip through their fingers.

To a ruler who had added thousands of square miles to his empire, the possession of an almost barren island might seem unimportant. To a ruler whose daily bread was adulation, who had grown weary of the title, ‘Conqueror of the East and West’, the island and its Knights were an irritation hardly to be borne.

It seemed as if the Knights, like gadflies, were determined to provoke the anger of the lion. Soleyman might mistrust the advice of his ministers. He could hardly, however, ignore the words of the greatest Mohammedan seaman of his time, the corsair Dragut.

Dragut, although a pirate, was allied to the Porte and in recent years had been careful to pay his duties and respects to the Sultan. He was, like Soleyman himself, a fighter and an opportunist. Soleyman heeded him more perhaps than his own Admiral Piali. When Dragut said: ‘Until you have smoked out this nest of vipers you can do no good anywhere,’ the Sultan was prepared to listen.

Recent events had confirmed Dragut’s opinion. When the Spanish Emperor, Philip II, had mounted an armada against the port of Penon de la Gomera, the Knights of Malta had assisted him with their galleys, and had added the weight of their experience, seamanship, and military ability, to the Spanish forces. Penon de la Gomera, which lay on the North African coast due south of Malaga, had long been a favourite port and anchorage for the corsairs of the Barbary coast. Its capture by the Christians was as much a blow to Moslem pride as its economic loss was important. The Knights had successfully attacked one of the Sultan’s ports on the Greek coastline. Ranging south of Malta, they had also captured a number of Turkish merchantmen. Soleyman was reminded that, ‘The island of Malta is swollen with slaves, true believers, and that among the distinguished men and women held there to ransom are the venerable Sanjak of Alexandria, and the old nurse of your daughter Mihrmah.’

Soleyman’s daughter, Mihrmah, was one of the chief advocates of an attack on Malta. The child of his favourite wife, the Russian-born Roxellane, Mihrmah never ceased to remind Soleyman of the account that still had to be settled with the Knights.

The capture of a great merchant ship belonging to Kustir-Aga, chief eunuch of the seraglio of the Sultan, was the ultimate provocation. It was an act which led Mihrmah and all the other members of the harem to raise their voices in protest. This merchantman, whose freight was estimated by the contemporary Spanish writer Balbi as being worth 80,000 ducats, was seized between the islands of Zante and Cephallonia by three Maltese galleys led by the greatest sailor that the Order of St John possessed, the Chevalier Romegas. The ship was bringing valuable luxuries and merchandise from Venice to Constantinople and, in the manner of the time, the principal ladies of the Imperial harem had taken shares in the venture. Captured and towed back intact to Malta, together with all its cargo, its loss mocked the Sultan’s favourites. Kustir-Aga, the chief eunuch, a personage of great power in the ‘boudoir politics’ of imperial Turkey, was not likely to lose any opportunity of reminding his lord and master of the constant depredations of the Knights.

The odalisques of the harem prostrated themselves before the Sultan, crying for vengeance. The Imam of the great Mosque, prompted no doubt by members of the court, was not slow to remind Soleyman, that True Believers were languishing in the dungeons of the Knights. They were being flogged like dogs at the oars of the very galleys which were raiding the empire’s shipping.

‘It is only thy invincible sword,’ the Imam proclaimed, ‘that can shatter the chains of these unfortunates, whose cries are rising to heaven and afflicting the very ears of the Prophet of God. The son is demanding his father, the wife, her husband and her children. All, therefore, wait upon thee, upon thy justice, and thy power, for vengeance upon their, and your, implacable enemies!’

It was unlikely that the Sultan, whose prudence and ability had been proved in as many council chambers as battlefields, was swayed entirely–if at all–by this clamour for vengeance. Malta was small, but, as he knew well, it was the keystone of the Mediterranean. Within its magnificent harbours he would be able to shelter his fleets, which would then be free for the conquest of Sicily and Southern Italy. The island was small, but it could be the fulcrum to the lever with which he might make the Mediterranean a Turkish lake. From it he could strike at what a later war-leader called ‘the soft underbelly of Europe’. The capture of Kustir-Aga’s merchantman, the effrontery of the attacks on his merchant shipping and coastal ports were additional factors, but irrelevant to his grand design.

Soleyman was well aware that the Knights of St John were not like other Christians. They were men who had dedicated their lives to an eternal war against his religion, and against everything that Turkey, as the leader of the Moslem world, represented. He had fought them at Rhodes and he knew that death in battle was something they sought as ardently as did his own Janissaries. He knew their reputation as sailors and corsairs. He had questioned his own sea-captains who had been in action against the Knights.

‘Their vessels,’ he had been told, ‘are not like others. They have always aboard them great numbers of arquebusiers and of knights who are dedicated to fight to the death. There has never been an occasion when they have attacked one of our ships that they have not either sunk it, or captured it.’ His sea-captains were in error there, for the records of the Knights show a number of occasions when their attempts on Turkish vessels were unsuccessful. In the main, though, it was true that in skill, seamanship, and fighting ability, there was no single vessel in the Mediterranean that could compare with a galley commanded by one of the Knights from Malta. Soleyman knew enough of their prowess to respect them as adversaries. Even as an old man, he would never have decided to attack their island-base purely on a matter of pique or prestige.

In October 1564 at a formal council, or Divan, presided over by the Sultan, the question of Malta and of a possible siege of the island formed the issue of debate. Not all of those present were in favour. Some envisaged an extension of the empire beyond Hungary and pressed for a large-scale military campaign in Europe. Others were for driving straight at the heart of their chief Christian adversary, and making an attack on the coast of Spain. Others, again, urged the capture of Sicily. Soleyman was reminded of the poverty and insignificance of Malta. ‘Many more difficult victories,’ they said, ‘have fallen to your scimitar than the capture of a handful of men in a little island that is not well fortified.’

It was the Sultan himself who pointed out that Malta was the stepping stone to Sicily, and beyond that, to Italy and southern Europe. He envisaged the day when ‘The Grand Seignior, or his deputies, master of the whole Mediterranean, may dictate laws, as universal lord, from that not unpleasant rock, and look down upon his shipping at anchor in its excellent harbour.’ Piali, admiral of the fleet, and Mustapha, Pasha of the army, were not slow to grasp the sound strategy behind Soleyman’s desire to attack the island. When the Divan concluded, the decision had been taken to invest Malta in the spring of the following year.

The edict went forth. The might of the Ottoman Empire–’that military state par excellence…built upon an ever-extending conquest–’ was to be deployed against the minute island of Malta, and against the Knights of the Order of St John. The Sultan himself had spoken: ‘Those sons of dogs whom I have already conquered and who were spared only by my clemency at Rhodes forty-three years ago–I say now that, for their continual raids and insults, they shall be finally crushed and destroyed!’

Background on Pandora’s Genes and Pandora’s Children.

One morning in the late seventies I saw a short squib in the New York Times business section about a company that was working to genetically alter bacteria that naturally consume oil so that they might be used to clean up oil spills. I thought, “Great! But what if your car catches it?”

This idea germinated for a while and became the nucleus of the setting for Pandora’s Genes and Pandora’s Children, post-holocaust adventure novels set in the late 21st century. In the world I came to imagine, genetically engineered bacteria were used on a particularly severe oil spill, and mutated to develop a taste for all petroleum products. The new bacteria spread rapidly, destroying the functionality of all machinery that runs on oil products, as well as all things containing plastic and other petro-based items. Among the things destroyed were the fail-safe seals that confined other recombinant-DNA experiments, as well as deadly viruses being engineered in secret germ-warfare research. The result was a greatly de-populated world, with many animal and insect species extinct or deleteriously altered, and with no remnants of what we consider modern technology.

One of the engineered diseases let loose was an inheritable illness in which affected women die in childbirth, usually upon having a second female child. The resulting rarity of women is the plot point that sets my story in motion. Both novels focus on two opposed groups, one which wishes to restore some semblance of civilization, and their antagonists, a fanatical religious group dedicated to the final, total eradication of all remnants of “science” and the “wild deenas” (DNA) that science loosed on the world. (They make the sacred sign of the double spiral in their rites.)

When the current Gulf of Mexico oil disaster occurred, and I read that one of the possible solutions was oil-eating bacteria, I must admit to a little chill of déjà-vu. I hope whatever is tried ultimately works, but I can’t help wondering what will happen if the experts begin using engineered bacteria on a large scale, and what other parts of my books might then come true.
Kathryn Lance is the author or ghost of more than fifty books of fiction and nonfiction, for children and adults, as well as countless articles. Her most recent sci-fi publication, in the December, 2008 Asimov’s, was “Welcome to Valhalla,” co-written with Jack McDevitt.

Take This Job and Shove It
By Richard Curtis

Most writers dream of leaving their day jobs (some have night jobs as well) and launching careers as full-time freelancers. In their eagerness to realize that goal, many of them quit as soon as they’ve made a few sales. This decision invariably turns out to be ill-advised if not catastrophic after the author discovers that he did not properly reckon the cost of independence, project the size and flow of earnings, or prepare himself psychologically. Even an author lucky enough to strike it rich on his first book should use the utmost restraint before quitting his job to become a writer. By the time he realizes he doesn’t know what to write for an encore, he may have raised his lifestyle to an unsupportably high plateau.

The questions of whether and when writers should go full-time are among the most common and vexing that agents have to deal with, and if an agent ever had a notion to play God, here is his opportunity. The responsibility for this decision is awesome and demands ten times the prudence required to advise authors about such matters as selecting the right publisher for their books. The number of factors is large and their complexity intimidating. It’s the kind of decision that should be reviewed with a great many people to collect as much input as possible.

An excellent idea is to make a list of pluses and minuses, what you stand to gain and what to lose. Often the right choice will jump out at you when you review this list. The secret is to make sure you have enumerated all the factors. Then you must be brutally honest with yourself. You do not want to subject yourself and your family to needless suffering because you erred on the side of wishful thinking when you drew up your scenario.

My first rule of thumb is to determine whether you have enough work lined up under contract to guarantee employment for one to two years; that probably means you have reached a level of skill and reliability your publisher can count on. I seldom permit an author to include in his expectations income that is not absolutely guaranteed—royalties, foreign rights sales, movie deals, and the like—unless there is a solid history of such windfalls in his track record. If you’ve never sold British rights to your previous books, if you only hope your next book will earn royalties, if your father-in-law thinks your book is a natural for the movies, I toss these items out of the equation, because they are only fodder for self-delusion and disappointment.

I do, however, include in the equation the renewal of current contracts after you have fulfilled them, particularly if you are a genre writer. If you have a three-book contract in an ongoing series, I tend to consider it a likelihood that you’ll be given another contract at the expiration of this one. If you’re an established mainstream writer with three or four books under your belt and a potful of good ideas for new ones, I’m disposed to take for granted that you’ll land a new contract when you complete your present book.

The renewal of contracts means money payable on signature of those agreements, so that when you look down the road for money to be earned after fulfillment of your present commitments, you should be able to count on income from new deals. It is also reasonable to figure that you’ll get more money per book than you’re getting now, because it’s likely the publisher will feel you’re a better writer and there’ll be more of a sales record to justify raises. There is also a tendency among publishers to give raises to their regular writers if for no other reasons than inflation, longevity, loyalty, faith in the future, and humane motivations. You have to ask for these raises, but there’s a good chance that if you don’t push it too hard, your publisher will give you a little more the next time around just because you’re a nice person.

Another important factor I weigh when discussing with authors the decision to go full-time is increased productivity.

At present, because you’re only able to devote an hour or two to your writing in the evenings, and maybe twice that much on the weekends, you are not capable of turning out more than two books, say, per year. But if you launch a full-time writing career, you may be able to double or triple your annual output, meaning double or triple the revenue. There is also, I’ve observed, a tendency for writers to improve the quality of their work after they become full-timers, because they’re exercising their skills to a greater degree, and (domestic distractions notwithstanding) their concentration increases. And if you do become a better, faster writer, the prospects for raises in pay from your publishers become even better. The process, in due time, becomes self-perpetuating.

Having painted the future in broad, and slightly rose-tinted, strokes, it’s time to focus on the hard realities of budgeting your money after you make The Big Move. Get out that legal pad and set up two columns, Income and Expenditures. So far, so good. Unfortunately, that’s about the only straightforward thing about setting up a budget, because when you start to analyze each item, you quickly see that simple concepts and definitions are elusive.

When you work for “the man,” you most likely receive a regular paycheck from which certain mandatory deductions are withheld. Among these are federal and state income taxes, sometimes municipal ones as well. Social security contributions are also compulsory. Then there may also be deductions for disability insurance, worker’s compensation, medical insurance, union dues, stock option purchases, pension contributions, and donations to the boss’s pet charity. Your net take-home income has been 20, 40, even 50 percent or more of your gross salary.

When you become a full-time writer, however, you suddenly find yourself in the position of “taking home” a “paycheck” from which nothing (except commissions, if you have an agent) has been deducted. At first glance that’s great. At second and third glances, you realize that the heavy burden of responsibility for many of those obligations, formerly taken care of by your boss, now rests on your own shoulders. You will have to set aside enough money to pay income taxes, social security, and other taxes such as unincorporated business taxes, occupancy taxes on your business property (your office, that is); medical and/or disability insurance premiums; pension contributions (you may now qualify for a Keogh Plan savings account); and whatever other “benefits” you wish to continue enjoying as carryovers from your erstwhile job. So, the $50,000 per annum that you project taking home when you go full-time may translate into less than $25,000 of disposable income after you set aside all the obligations your employer used to pay on your behalf.

To your projections of income from your writing, add income from your spouse’s job if any, investment dividends and savings interest, and other sources of guaranteed revenue such as teaching, lecturing, or consulting income. And you must not rule out your savings as a potential source of income. Because delays are more the rule than the exception in the publishing game, it is entirely possible that you will have to tap the principal in your savings account or liquidate a long-term investment in order to tide yourself over between checks.

Because many major expenses are payable quarterly (such as estimated federal taxes), semiannually, or even annually, you might consider opening a savings account for those obligations only. You can then earn a little interest on the money you have set aside to pay those bills. Needless to say, you must never invest that money in speculative ventures.

When you try to tote up the “expenditures” side of your projections, you once again discover that nothing is as simple as it seemed to be when your boss took care of things. You will immediately see how costly medical insurance is, particularly when you are no longer participating in a group health care plan. The social security rate for self-employed people is higher than for those in “respectable” jobs (writing has not been a respectable job for twenty-five years).

And then there are those “bennies” and perks you took for granted when you worked for that company. If you had an expense account, you will now have to absorb that portion of the benefit that was formerly spent on yourself, in particular travel and entertainment. No longer can you charge the firm for your spouse’s meal when you take clients or customers to dinner; no longer can you bill your boss for mileage incurred on that side visit to Disneyland during your business trip to Los Angeles. And because current tax law permits you to deduct only a percentage of legitimate entertainment expenses, you’ve also lost that part that your company absorbed in tax on the nondeductible part. Say good-bye to the free use of the postage machine when you mailed off your personal bills; to the telephone from which you called your publisher, your agent, your kid in college, your mother in Florida; to the photocopying machine on which you ran off copies of your manuscript after everyone had gone home; and to the office word processor, computer, coffee maker. Say good-bye to the paid vacation. You want a vacation, you now can take fifty-two weeks a year if you want, only you have to pay for them out of your own pocket. Say good-bye to sick days on salary. Say good-bye to the company car and the company jet and the company dining room. Buy your own car and jet and dining room.

I am not saying there aren’t also many hidden benefits to leaving our job for a full-time writing career. But somehow, the savings on carfare or on the expensive wardrobe you’re trading in for the freelancer’s uniform of jeans and T-shirts don’t seem to balance the hidden costs. And not everybody fervently believes that getting to see more of one’s spouse or kids is a hidden benefit.

The biggest challenge to the newly independent is the large lump-sum payments due with unforgiving regularity throughout the year. Among these, as I’ve said, are quarterly estimated federal income and social security taxes, but there are also state and local taxes and estimates and medical insurance premiums. This is not to mention those other lump sums you have to pay whether you are self-employed or not, such as automobile and home insurance, private school or college tuition, summer camp fees, repair contracts on major appliances, and the like. And these all have a way of going up. Add to them the cost of occasional but inevitable contingencies, the kind that always seem to rear their heads hours after your warranties expire and moments after you have served notice to your boss of your intention to leave his employ; washing machines giving up the ghost, television picture tubes burning out, automobile engines seizing, wisdom teeth impacting.

Aside from being fiscally unprepared to deal with these aggravations, you may not be emotionally able to cope with them. This is by far the graver problem, for while you can often juggle your accounts or hustle up some money to cover short-term deficits, it is much, much harder to find the psychological resources for dealing with that condition of perpetual anxiety about money that is the lot of most freelance people.

The truth is that not everybody is constitutionally cut out to work for him- or herself. There are those who are incapable of preparing a budget or of staying within its rigid boundaries. There are those who cannot handle the loneliness of freelancing and the loss of the social support that comes from working with others. There are those who lack self-discipline, those who, after years of punching in and out at a time clock, reporting to a boss or supervisor, adhering to rules and regulations and work orders, are at a loss to structure their own time. There are those who cannot set short- and long-term goals or keep to them. There are those who cannot live with the distractions of full-time domesticity. There are those who go to pieces at the prospect of drawing on their savings or selling off an investment to cover an unexpected expense. There are those who indulge their newfound freedom by tackling that Great American Novel they’ve always dreamed of, instead of doing the commercial projects that have to be done to keep their finances on a steady course.

Having tried the freelance life for several years in my twenties, I can testify to having flunked most of the above tests. Though I did produce a goodly number of books during that period, and earned a decent living, I found the loneliness and isolation very hard to bear, and the budgeting of money impossible. I had some savings salted away, but having been raised to think of drawing money out of savings as tantamount to filing for bankruptcy, I suffered woefully. Every month, when the time came to pay my bills, I developed all sorts of neurasthenic symptoms ranging from vapors to hysterical pregnancy. So, be as candid with yourself as you can be when you contemplate making this critical career decision, and ask your spouse, your best friend, your accountant, your attorney, your shrink, and your agent to be so, too. If they vote yes, then all you’ll need is a laptop, a pair of jeans, and a few T-shirts, and you’re in business.

Oh yes—don’t forget $100,000 worth of book contracts!

This article was originally written for Locus, The Newspaper of the Science Fiction Field. It’s reprinted in Mastering the Business of Writing. Copyright © 1990 by Richard Curtis. All Rights Reserved.